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stage three · what is it worth, and what is actually there

Valuation and multiples.

A multiple is a summary of a judgment, not the judgment itself. Understanding what sits behind it is what lets you argue about the right things.

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Acquisition Conciergevaluation & multiples · orientation, not a substitute for your own advisors
I can orient you on how private-company value is assessed and what moves it, I won't give you a multiple or a valuation, and you should be wary of anyone who does before seeing normalized financials. Tell me about the business.

Private-company valuation resolves to two numbers that are each more contestable than they appear: what the business actually earns, and what a buyer should pay for each unit of it. The first is an accounting question that diligence answers, normalized earnings, once the owner's personal expenses, one-off items and the costs of running the business as a standalone entity are all properly reflected. The second is a risk judgment. A multiple encodes how durable those earnings look, how dependent they are on people who may leave, how concentrated among customers who may not stay, and how much capital the business consumes to keep producing them. Buyers who negotiate over the multiple while accepting the earnings figure are usually arguing about the smaller of the two numbers.

mechanisms

What moves a multiple.

Two businesses with identical EBITDA can be worth materially different amounts. These are the reasons, roughly in order of how much they matter.

Revenue durability

Contracted and recurring revenue supports a higher multiple than project or transactional revenue, because the earnings are more likely to persist.

Customer concentration

Dependence on a small number of customers is the single most common drag, especially where the relationship sits with the departing owner.

Owner dependence

A business that runs without its owner is worth more than the same business that does not, because what is transferable is what is being bought.

Management depth

A second layer capable of running the company reduces both integration risk and the buyer's own bandwidth problem.

Growth and market position

Demonstrated growth in a structurally healthy market, distinguished carefully from a good recent year.

Capital intensity

Maintenance capital expenditure and working-capital demands determine how much of reported EBITDA becomes cash you can use.

methodology

What the evidence shows — and what we examine.

How valuation is approached in practice.

Normalizing earningsAdjusting reported results for owner compensation, personal expenses, one-off items and standalone costs, the foundation everything else rests on.
Comparable transactionsWhat private transaction databases can and cannot tell you, and why self-reported comparables should be treated as a range rather than evidence.
Cash conversionWorking capital and maintenance capital expenditure, the reason two businesses with identical EBITDA are not equally valuable.
When to get a formal valuationWhere an independent valuation is genuinely required, disputes, tax, shareholder matters, financing, as opposed to useful for negotiation.
what's at stake

What the valuation determines.

Price is the input every later decision inherits, most immediately, how much debt the combined business must carry.

purchase price debt capacity and service the return the deal can produce years to recover an overpayment negotiating position on structure covenant headroom

The Institute does not value companies.

Nothing here is a valuation opinion or a multiple for your target. Where a number is needed for a dispute, a tax position, a shareholder matter or a lender, that calls for a credentialed valuation professional, which the Institute can help you identify.

common questions

Valuation, practical questions.

Where do published multiples for my industry come from, and can I rely on them?

Mostly from private transaction databases assembled by intermediaries and appraisers, populated with self-reported deals. They are useful for orientation and genuinely bad for precision. Reporting is voluntary and skewed toward transactions that closed and that someone chose to report; the accompanying financial detail is thin; and "comparable" is doing enormous work when businesses differ in concentration, owner dependence and revenue quality. Use them to know whether you are in a four-times or an eight-times sector, not to establish what a specific company is worth.

What is the difference between enterprise value and what the seller receives?

Frequently a great deal, and the gap is a recurring source of late-stage friction. Enterprise value is the value of the operating business. What the seller actually receives is that figure adjusted for debt repaid at closing, cash retained, a working-capital settlement against an agreed target, escrow or holdback amounts, transaction fees, and taxes, with any earnout or seller note deferred and contingent. A seller focused on the headline number can be genuinely shocked at closing, which is a conversation better had early than at signing.

How should synergies affect what we pay?

As little as possible, as a matter of discipline. Synergies are value you create through your own work after closing; paying for them in advance transfers that value to the seller and leaves you carrying the execution risk. Where competitive pressure forces some of it into the price, the useful practice is to pay only for synergies squarely within your own control, a facility consolidation you will definitely execute, a role that genuinely disappears, and never for revenue synergies, which depend on customers behaving as hoped.

When do we actually need a formal valuation?

When a number needs to withstand challenge by someone other than the seller: a lender requiring independent support, a tax position, an ESOP, a shareholder or matrimonial dispute, or litigation. For negotiating a purchase, a formal valuation is usually unnecessary, your own normalized earnings analysis and a defensible view of the multiple do the work, and the price is settled by negotiation rather than by an appraisal. Commissioning one to strengthen a negotiating position rarely repays its cost.

related

Related specialization areas & resources.

Working out what to pay?

Describe the business and what you have been shown. The Concierge will orient you on the drivers, it will not give you a number.

Acquisition Conciergeorientation · not legal, tax or valuation advice
I can orient you on how private-company value is assessed and what moves it, I won't give you a multiple or a valuation, and you should be wary of anyone who does before seeing normalized financials. Tell me about the business.